Crockford considers the Oaks

Crockford has made no secret of his favoured filly for the Oaks, The Fugue, but here he takes a moment to reflect on the other fancies in the field.

Vow - What a fairytale would be in the making if Harry Herbert and the Highclere team could start a classic double with Vow in the Oaks and follow up with Bonfire in the Derby? This evidently talented filly ran so greenly at Lingfield in the Oaks Trial that she could do nothing but impress when she found her second gear and pulled away to win. Unbeaten and the apple of the Haggas' eye she has to at least make a place. She could be each way value if you can still find 11/2 tomorrow.

Maybe - One of six entries from O'Brien's yard and the choice of his son. This filly was impressive as a two year (especially in winning the Moyglare). The third in the Guineas could be excused due to the ground and the pull away tactics of Homecoming Queen. However, there may be more each way value with some of her stablemates - Twirl and Kissed.

Kailani - Barzalona will hope for another classic winner on the Epsom Downs with this mount for Godolphin. An excellent display in the Pretty Polly on softer ground at Newmarket shows her staying potential. Unbeaten she could be anything but Crockford feels that they may be better in the field.

The Fugue - This Gosden filly has gathered a lot of support since her Musidora win. That day she had a fancied O'Brien filly behind her in Twirl and the Nell Gwyn winner in a distant third. Crockford is certain that she will hit the right note tomorrow and will send the bookies fleeing. 

Crockford's prediction:

1 THE FUGUE
2 Vow
3 Maybe


Each way value - Twirl at 50/1

Crockford's Whisper: Calusa Caldera wins at 17/2

Crockford's followers on twitter benefitted from two winners at Ffos Las this afternoon - Point Blank at 100/30 (2.50) and Calusa Caldera 17/2 (4.30). Point Blank was the second leg of a first and second race double for O'Neill and McLernon. The second gamble came after an interesting whisper that Mr Luff's (owner of the 1986 Grand National winner West Tip) horse was expected to return to form and run well. With such a whisper Crockford could hardly turn down the 12/1 available about Hobbs trained course winner Calusa Caldera.

Crockford's Classic "Dead Cert" for the Oaks

The expression dead cert was coined in relation to a running of the Oaks in the nineteenth century. Crockford's filly duly obliged that day as he thinks his selection will this Friday in the third classic of the season. The defeat of Homecoming Queen on Sunday in the Irish 1000 Guineas has got everyone questioning the form books and looking twice at the early season rain soaked ground. Another O'Brien filly heads the market for the Oaks - Maybe. Her form was solid last season and she may not of relished the ground at Newmarket leading to the market confidence that there is for her now.

However, Crockford believes that a mixture of the ground, trip and an unlucky run belied the form of another in the Newmarket classic- John Gosden's The Fugue. Her demolition of the O'Brien fancy Twirl in the Musidora at York when the ground and distance came right gives Crockford the confidence to call her a dead certainity and at 3/1 with Ladbrokes she looks an attractive price. O'Brien does have a strong hand in the race with other fillies such as Kissed also potentially lining up and the value in his string does seem to be the 40/1 each way that you can get about Twirl.

Just as for Crockford and his gambling friends in the 1840's perhaps the dead cert does not lie in the shape of a Derby fancy (Camelot) but in that of a filly, The Fugue, in the Oaks.

Can she come to haunt us as she runs away from the field down the Epsom straight? Crockford thinks so.

Ride of the season? Cathy Gannon on Cut the Cackle

Crockford is not easily impressed but he was on Friday by the exploits of the brilliant Cathy Gannon at Yarmouth. She looked lucky to stay on as Cut the Cackle jumped awkwardly out of the stalls and headed left. Cathy recovered her iron within the furlong and went on to lead four out. From there she repelled all raiders including a strong finish from Ian Burns and his mount the 6/4 favourite Trojan Rocket  - who propelled himself towards the leader as they raced for the line.

Cathy's ride on the 10/1 winner of the Oddschecker.com Handicap has to be a candidate for ride of the season!

As predicted Bated Breath's price tumbles from 12/1 to 4/1 for Royal Ascot

Crockford's predictions earlier in the week proved right as Bated Breath repelled the Irish raider Sole Power to clinch the Temple Stakes. The sprinter looked impressive as he cruised with the pack before asserting and having to see off a strong challenge near the line from the second favourite. Crockford's Whisper Borderlescott was unlucky not to make the frame as he rallied in the final few yards and will come on again from the run. The performance as Crockford warned saw Bated Breath's price for Royal Ascot tumble from 12/1 with most firms to as short as 4/1 tonight with the magic sign. Black Caviar will be more of test come June and is quoted at around 1/2 by most firms.

This is how Crockford's other gambles fared yesterday:

Curragh - Hermival and Daddy Long Legs (both unplaced 3.15)
Haydock - Mabaany (unplaced 2.30) and Borderlescott (unplaced 3.00)
Goodwood - Opinion (unplaced 2.15), Fiorente (2nd 7/4 2.45), Grumeti (2nd 5/4 3.20) and Sea Moon (1st 2/7 4.25)
Chester - Viva Ronaldo (unplaced 4.00), English Summer (unplaced 5.10) and Green Park (1st 7/2 5.45)
York - Ultimate (unplaced 2.05), Brae Hill and Captain Dimitrios (both unplaced 2.35) and Cavalryman (1st 9/4 3.10).

Crockford's Dead Cert - an English Summer

The 2000 Guineas at the Curragh this afternoon must be one of the most open in years. O'Brien has a strong hand as usual with the booking of his son on Power you can see why the bookies have made him favourite with the withdrawal of Parish Hall. However, this muddling affair sees most mounts coming here off disappointing efforts or dogged by inconsistency. Power's race up the Rowley mile was to bad to believe being over 30 lengths off Camelot. Born To Sea flopped at Newmarket. Daddy Long Legs was pulled up in the Kentucky Derby. Wrote did not deliver in his last two runs. The list could go on. 

Hermival, however did do well in bad conditions at Newmarket and was just behind another french colleague and a horse in Camelot who could prove to be very special. With the French challenger marked up at 5/1 he looks interesting value. Crockfords also believes this may be one of those rare occasions where the O'Brien family may have got it wrong and would not be surprised if Daddy Long Legs creeps into the frame at around 12/1 rather than the favoured Power. In such an open affair consideration has to also be given to a Wrote who may return to form and to a strong Hannon horse in the shape of Trumpet Major.

This weeks sun has certainly brought out quality to a packed afternoon of competitive and classy contests.  Ryan Moore could be good for a four timer at Goodwood aided by some excellent bookings with Sir Michael Stoute and interestingly Grumeti for Alan King. 

The Temple Stakes at Haydock is the best renewal for some time with Bated Breath looking to repel the Irish raider Sole Power - Crockford would not be surprised if the old favourite Borderlescott also made the frame at a big price too.

Dr Marwan Koukash positively dominants the card at the Rodee and should do well with his aptly named English Summer  (5.10 Chester) this afternoon. Course winners are always worth a second look at this peculiar but loveable venue.

Crockford's Dead Cert - English Summer (Chester 5.10)

Crockford found it hard to be as certain as he usually is today - just like we can never be certain of an English Summer. Well, the sun is shinning and the twists and turns of this Cheshire course do need a horse that likes them. Dr Koukash should collect the prize money with this one today. 

Crockford's Whisper - Borderlescott (Haydock 3.00)

Borderlescott has a massive price of 28/1 for the Temple Stakes this afternoon. The trainer's whisper is that he certainly would not be surprised if he were to make the frame this afternoon.

Crockford's other gambles around the courses:

Curragh - Hermival and Daddy Long Legs (e/w) (3.15)

Haydock -  Mabaany (2.30) and Borderlescott (e/w) (3.00)

Goodwood - Opinion (2.15), Fiorente (2.45), Grumeti (3.20) and Sea Moon (4.25)

Chester - Viva Ronaldo (4.00), English Summer (5.10) and Green Park (5.45)

York - Ultimate (2.05), Brae Hill and Capatain Dimitrios (e/w) (2.35) and Cavalryman (3.10)

Waiting with Bated Breath for Black Caviar

This weekend Bated Breath looks likely to take on his rivals in the Temple Stakes at Haydock. He will be a hot fancy for punters for this Saturday's contest but this will only be an appetiser for Royal Ascot.

We are all waiting with Bated Breath for the arrival of Black Caviar on British soil. Her first engagement is due to be with Bated Breath in the Diamond Jubilee where she is already an odds on favourite with every firm that is quoting prices. But are diamonds really a girls best friend? Black Caviar could have her reputation tarnished in this tricky affair forever even before any much anticipated Glorious Goodwood meeting with the mighty Frankel. Many foreign raiders have failed to make an impression on British fields at Ascot in the past.  Bated Breath is offered at 12/1 by a host of the companies for the Royal Ascot centrepiece - Crockford believes those prices could well tumble after a good run on Saturday and perhaps Black Caviar's reputation could as well come late June.

Against the BofE interest rate Frankel looks value

With the Bank of England still only offering 0.5% interest on your investments you must be tempted by the 4/11 being offered by Hills about the unbeaten champion for tomorrow's Lockinge. Is it to good to be true? Crockford does not think so. Detractors suggest that the change of stable and race fitness of Excelebration may make a race of it tomorrow at Newbury - but this surely will be the fourth time that Frankel will beat his rival. The magic sign have some interesting place odds for Dubawi Gold at 50/1 and Strong Suit at 14/1  which may be worth a second look but it is likely that we will see something reminiscent of last year's Greenham finish with the heads of the market finishing first and second.

In 2012 will we see Frankel achieve his potential?

This Saturday sees the reappearance of the mighty Frankel at Newbury in the Lockinge. Cecil and the Prince believe that this year we may get to see his "true potential" with a step up in distance to a 1m2f for either the Eclipse or Juddmonte International. Concerns about an injury and the rumours of retirement should be distant memories by teatime on Saturday.

More mouthwatering again is the tempting duel that may be on the cards in August on the South Downs with a possible date with the antipodean heroine Black Caviar who notched her 21st win in the Goodwood Stakes down under the other day. If that were to happen would not the Sussex Stakes of 2012 live in the memory of racing pundits as long as the great battle between Grundy and Bustino has. What a day for racing that would be.

Saturday's race is a high standard renewal but only a curtain raiser for the season ahead with Frankel being re-oppossed by previously vanquished mounts in Excelebration, Dubawi Gold, Strong Suit  but more interestingly potentially by So You Think who would notably be dropping in distance for the contest. One would expect the O'Brien charge to be a more likely opponent later in the season if Frankel was to step up as suggested. 

Many will say the 2/7 or 4/11 is not value about Cecil's super horse but you can't get that from the bank or building society this weekend - The longer place prices for some of the others look possible good value too.

Well, let's see what 2012 holds - perhaps a legend in the making. No that has been already done with the 2011 2000 Guineas. Did we have dream we would see better than Dancing Brave?