O'Brien heavy fears for Irish Derby

Aidan O'Brien may have to make one of the most difficult decisions of his training career today -whether to run or not run Camelot in this evening's Irish Derby.  To quote O'Brien himself he has labelled the conditions as "National Hunt ground" and "tough going" at the Curragh after the recent deluges that it has suffered. He does not want the first evening running of the classic to be the twilight of his colts legendary status at the hand of potentially his own stablemate Imperial Monarch - who has already shown ability on this ground. Crockford believes that given his description of the conditions he is unlikely to take the risk and will pull the favourite opening up the race to others (including his own Imperial Monarch and Astrology).

The super cell flood almost cost us the Pitmans Derby at Newcastle too. If you had seen the paddock and course on Thursday afternoon you would never believe that it would dry up to the extent it has. The 2m contest is always competitive and will be again so today but made even more difficult by the ground.

Looking across the cards Crockford fancies that Hannon will have a good day with runners such as City Image, Libranno, Annunciation and Coup De Ville.

Crockford's Dead Cert - Well Painted (3.45 Chester)
The two runs of this Haggas horse have caught Crockford's eye. Winning a good maiden at Newbury that has produced winners and then going on to run a good second in a competitive race in soft ground at York this dead cert should hand punters a good profit this afternoon.

Crockford's Whisper - Gulf of Naples (3.20 Newcastle e/w)
This whisper came straight from Mark Johnston himself who described Gulf of Naples as his best chance of the day and expected to finish in the frame. Having run a brilliantly game race in the Ascot Gold Cup he has the strongest form and should handle the conditions as well as any other. With the Plate always being competitive the rivals to watch may be the in form Crackentorp who is also excellent each way value and Montaff. Given the trainers recommendation Gulf of Naples looks an attractive proposition at around 9/1.


Crockford's gambles around the courses:

Newmarket - Michelangelo (2.00), City Image (2.30), Dandino (3.00), Libranno (3.35), Disclaimer (4.05) and Dangerous Midge (4.40 e/w)
Chester - Annunciation (2.10), Zain Glory (3.10) and Well Painted (3.45)
Curragh - Gordon Lord Byron (5.55) and Cristoforo Columbo (6.30)
Newcastle - Gulf of Naples (3.20 e/w) and Fire Ship (5.30)
Windsor - Coup De Ville (4.00) and Pearl Ice (4.35)
Lingfield - Royal aspiration (6.20) and Exning Halt (9.00)

In memory of Fred Archer - 2748 winners

The great Fred Archer

Looking down the card at HQ today you will see that the third race is entitled Betfair Supports The Animal Health Trust Fred Archer Stakes. This race is held in memory of the greatest man in the history of the turf. Archer had his first winner over fences at Bangor at the tender age of twelve before going on to be crowned champion jockey on the flat for thirteen consecutive seasons (1874-1886). During his unrivalled career the Tinman as he was known rode 2748 winners out of 8084 starts - amongst these wins he claimed a total of twenty one british classics. Archer suffered more than others for his art being  5ft 10 inches he followed a strict regime of constant dieting and self denial.  Towards the end of his career it was clear to many that this was taking its toll on Archer alongside the death of his young wife Helen Rose (who was the niece of Matt Dawson who he had apprenticed with and rode for). Racked by depression Archer took his own life aged only 29 years on November 8th 1886 at the end of his thirteenth season as champion. It would be fair to say we will never see his like again.

Hayley Turner rides Dandino today

Looking at todays card Crockford is certain that the shrewd and competitive Archer would have chosen Dandino if he had the choice. Today's jockey is a modern day star - the brilliant Hayley Turner. Having given a excellent last ride to Dandino at Goodwood just losing out to the classy Sea Moon she should go one better today in this listed contest.  So in memory of the great Archer we give the first ever Archer's Selection - Dandino

Archer's Selection - Dandino (3.00 Newmarket)
The brilliant Turner will steer this warm favourite home and into the winners enclosure.

Barney Curley Double?

On Saturday 16th June Crockford gave you Pindar as his dead cert, who duly obliged at 10/1 in the first race that day at Bath. That day Pindar had all the hallmarks of a Barney Curley winner having been brought back to form by another brilliant training performance. 

Crockford believes that tomorrow (Friday 29th) we could see Curley horses back in the Winners Enclosure and in the frame. His two 8 year olds have attracted Crockford's attention.

Crockford's Dead Cert - Pindar (5.05 Folkestone)

Trained to perfection Pindar won at Bath and now looks to follow up at Folkestone. Currently at 9/4 favourite it will be interesting to watch the market if there are any moves as he has an extra two furlongs to cover on this outing. That aside Crockford foresees this as another gamble landed for him on a Barney Curley winner.

Crockford's Whisper - Allanit (8.40 Newmarket)

Daragh O'Donohoe is also booked to ride Pindar at Folkestone and should be travelling back to HQ to ride  Curley's other 8 year old Allanit in this handicap. Allanit has had a five month break and returns here with a chance of making the frame if not more. Could this be another training performance to admire? Crockford thinks so.

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Royal Ascot Review - Where next?

2012 will be remembered as one of the best Royal Ascot's ever -if not the best.  Crockford after reflecting on the week that was asks where next for the stars of the show:

Frankel - Imperious, brilliant, scintillating; what more could be said about his demolition of his rivals in the Queen Anne. Rated the top in the world there can be no argument that he is not the best that many of us have ever seen. His next Glorious victory will be at Goodwood according to Sir Henry before moving up to 1m2f for the Juddmonte International at the Ebor meeting. 

Dawn Approach - The Irish confidence behind Bolger's Coventry winner proved right. Winning well whilst still looking green, the colt has been marked up by Paddy Power as short as 7/1 to take the 2013 2000 Guineas. Other firms are offering more realistic odds of 12/1 (Magic sign included). With his form not being franked by the run of  the disappointing Hannon horse Mister Marc later in the week questions have to be asked if the current favouritism is justified and if that there will not be someone better coming along later in the summer.

So You Think - O'Brien showed his true mettle and why he is world class this week in admitting that he had made mistakes with So You Think up until now by training him for stamina and not speed. On Wednesday things fell into place and this star added another Group 1 to his tally in winning the Prince of Wales. Next stop will be the Eclipse where he will be odds on favourite given the fact that neither the great Frankel or already legendary Camelot will not be present.

Princess Highway - Many overlooked this filly including Crockford in his assessment of the Ribblesdale on Thursday to their peril. Her stunningly impressive victory sealed her place as the leading filly in many pundits eyes putting daylight between her and the classy The Fugue back six lengths behind her. Weld says that her next stop is the Irish Oaks which if she appears in the same form should be a formality.

Sea Moon - In a year that has not been so kind so far to Sir Michael Stoute this horse has shone. His win in what was a good renewal of the Hardwicke Stakes on Saturday has certainly placed him in with an excellent chance to land the next big prize at Ascot - The King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Obviously key to his success will be the presence or otherwise of Camelot and the like.

Black Caviar - Well she did it - 22 straight victories and remains unbeaten. The official distance of a head and what was almost false confidence of Luke Nolen belied the true nature of her victory. It was clear that the hyped horse had not appeared that day and the testing nature of the race was underestimated.  If the horses that are currently included in the line for the July Cup had opposed her that day there may well have been a different result and a lot of broken hearts down under. Crockford thinks unfortunately we can be sure that the super mare will never bless us with her presence again.

Simenon - Mullins pulled off one of the greatest training performances in years winning both the Ascot Stakes and Queen Alexandria Stakes with this progressive type. The Irish gamble was truly landed in the last race of the meeting with talk of a tilt at the Melbourne Cup abound soon after. Yesterday Mullins confirmed that his next stop will be the Goodwood Cup at Glorious Goodwood on the same day as the Galway Hurdle. If Mullins arrives as promised on the Sussex Downs and deserts  the Galway Festival for the day Crockford is sure you will see the bookies running.

Royal Ascot Final Day - The arrival of Black Caviar

The much touted day has arrived - tomorrow at 3.45pm Black Caviar will race down the Ascot straight and perhaps into history. The arrival of this antipodean sprinter on a British racecourse has been the greatest talk of the turf in years. In Australia she is already more than a superstar beating all before her but will she do the same here? Well, this is not a vintage crop of sprinters that she is taking on and her form did not get an amazing franking with the disappointing run of Ortensia (an old rival) in the Kings Stand on Tuesday. With quality sprinters such as Bated Breath missing, the French challenger is seen as the main threat. Crockford thinks if she is worth even 100th of the hype she should beat all of these into a cocked hat. For Crockford the value in the race is Pastoral Player at 33/1 who has recently raced back into form and may be placed.

Crockford's Dead Cert - Overturn (Queen Alexandria 5.35)
Second in the Chester Cup to his stablemate Ile De Re he should go one better in this Royal Ascot marathon. The Irish are confident about their challenger but if there is a threat to this front running star it may well come from another dual purpose winner Kangaroo Court  at 50/1 for Emma Lavelle or the Gosden fancy Zuider Zee who ran fourth in the Henry II Stakes. Crockford believes that this dead cert will run his rivals into the ground in another imperious front running performance.

Crockford's Whisper - Medicean Man (Wokingham 4.25 e/w)
After finishing well at HQ the other week Medicean Man followed it up with a fine run in the Kings Stand on Tuesday. Gask also has High Standing in the field who could also run well after finishing behind his stablemate at Newmarket. Medicean Man was doing his best work in the final furlong on Tuesday and caught many people's eye - at 14/1 he is excellent each way value with Gask fancying his chances. The mercurial Palace Moon may also trouble the judge.

Chesham - Chilworth Icon (e/w)
Hardwicke - Sea Moon
Diamond Jubilee - Black Caviar and Pastoral Player (e/w)
Wokingham - Medicean Man (e/w) and Palace Moon (e/w)
Duke of Edinburgh - Harlestone Times (e/w)
Queen Alexandria - Overturn and Kangaroo Court (e/w)

Royal Ascot Fourth Day

Amongst the stars on show this week at Royal Ascot some of the brightest are those of O'Brien's - today is no exception with Astrology (King Edward VII) and Homecoming Queen (Coronation). Astrology could not match the stellar performance of his stablemate Camelot at Epsom but should be the star of the day in his race. Homecoming Queen disappointed in the Irish 1000 Guineas but conditions have come right for her today for her to re-crowned.

Cockford's Dead Cert - Astrology (King Edward 3.05)
Astrology will have too much for his rivals with Thought Worthy the only one worthy of consideration as a threat. In Crockford's opinion if Camelot had been absent at Epsom Astrology would have been in the winners circle. He will be a short price today but it will still seem like value later.

Crockford's Whisper - DanaDana (Wolfreton 4.25 e/w)
DanaDana has progressed well this season and will certainly run well again for Cumani today. With the magic sign marking the price at about 8/1 it is certainly worth a second look. A small each way punt on the foreign raider Hyper at 28/1 could prove to be attractive too.

Crockford's other gambles today at the royal meeting:

Albany - Newfangled and Equitania (e/w)
King Edward VII - Astrology
Coronation - Homecoming Queen
Wolfreton - DanaDana (e/w) and Hyper (e/w)
Queen's Vase - Minimise Risk
Buckingham Palace - Primaeval (e/w) and Castles in the Air (e/w)

Royal Ascot Third Day

Ladies Day may be dampened by the weather this year, but a very special filly will be on show this afternoon to brighten our day. The Fugue will hit the right note in the Ribblesdale after an unlucky run in the Oaks.  She is reopposed this today by the Oaks second Shirocco Star and the Oaks fancy Vow who was said to have not handled the Epsom undulations. An excellent renewal of the Gold Cup will also be a race to relish.

Crockford's Dead Cert - The Fugue (Ribblesdale 3.05)
Crockford could not belief the lack of luck for this filly in the Oaks. This dead cert will return to the winning ways this afternoon and will show the form that destroyed her rivals ay York in the Musidora. 2/1 or 15/8 will look excellent value by the middle of the afternoon.

Crockford's Whisper - Mister Marc (Norfolk 2.30)
Crockford was impressed by the way in which this colt battled Dawn Approach on his last outing. The Bolger colt having obliged earlier this week at the Royal meeting this horse should make at least a place in the Norfolk for Mr Hannon.

Crockford's other selections for the third day:

Norfolk - Mister Marc (e/w)
Riddlesdale - The Fugue
Gold Cup - Opinion Poll
Britannia - Prince Alzain (e/w)
Tercentenary - Wrotham Heath
King George V - Rougemont (e/w)

Crockford's Whisper wins at 20/1 today at Royal Ascot

Ishvana delievered for O'Brien and Crockford in the Jersey Stakes at the royal meeting this afternoon. Crockford hopes that others benefitted from the 20/1 whisper that he gave this morning. More dead certs and whispers will be given tomorrow - Crockford's dead cert will be running in the Ribblesdale.

For updates follow Crockford on twitter at crockford@deadcerts

Royal Ascot Second Day

Well after being treated to the best performance Crockford had seen in years from a horse in the form of Frankel - what could we expect today? So You Think has been well touted since his arrival from down under and should add another top prize today with a win the Prince of Wales. O'Brien should have a successful afternoon with chances in the Jersey with Ishvana and with Devotion in the last.

Crockford's Dead Cert - Nahrain (Windsor Forest 3.05)
Roger Varian has been looking forward to the seasonal reappearnce of Nahrain who should land the second race at the Royal meeting today. Quoted at about 4/1 the odds should be attractive too.

Crockford's Whisper - Ishvana (Jersey 2.30)
O'Brien's classy filly should make the frame today after her classic performance a few weeks ago. Crockford believes there is excellent value available at around 14/1.

Crockfords other gambles today at the meeting:

Jersey - Ishvana (e/w)
Windsor Forest - Nahrain
Prince of Wales - So You Think
Royal Hunt Cup - Rock Critic (e/w), King Torus (e/w) and Boom & Bust (e/w)
Queen Mary -  Jubilee Diamond (e/w)
Sandringham - Devotion (e/w)

Royal Ascot First Day

The much awaited day has now arrived. Frankel is bound to rack up his 11th consecutive win to open the Royal meeting and start the first leg of the double with Black Caviar, which was amazing qouted at evens yesterday by the magic sign.

The value in the Queen Anne is the each way certainty in the form of Strong Suit at about 10/1 with Premio Loco being attractive each way value at 50/1 too.

Crockford's Dead Cert - Power (St James's Palace 3.45)
After his Irish Guineas win he should be a certainty to power away from his rivals again today. The only interesting challenge may come from the supplemented Gabrial who looks good each way value too at around 16/1.

Crockford's Whisper - Sole Power (King's Stand 3.05)
If Black Caviar is really as good as the hype Ortensia should be a main contender for this sprint, ut Crockford hears good things about this Irish raider's chances after running more favoured horses close this season already. At 8/1 there could be some very good each way value here.

Crockfords other gambles at the royal meeting:

Queen Anne -  Frankel, Strong Suit (e/w) and Premio Loco (e/w)
Kings Stand -  Ortensia, Sole power (e/w) and Spirit Quartz (e/w)
St James's Palace - Power, Gabrial (e/w) and Wrote (e/w)
Coventry - Sir Prancelot
Ascot Stakes - Veiled (e/w)
Windsor Castle - Ask Dad (e/w)

Barney Curley gamble?

In the prelude to what promises to be a fantastic week ahead at Royal Ascot today's cards throw up some competitive handicaps. Obviously we will not see the standard of Frankel or Black Caviar on course today but progressive classy types such as Pearl Secret (3.25 Sandown) are bound to still catch the eye.

Crockford's Dead Cert - Pindar (2.10 Bath)
Barney Curley has a way of bringing horses back to form and landing the gamble for punters. This lightly raced horse was off for four years before his reappearance at Yarmouth on bad ground last month. The race, the better ground and a touch of the Curley magic make this a horse not to miss. Crockford does warn though to watch the betting.

Crockford's Whisper - Pea Shooter (3.10 York)
Impressive last year more could have been expected this year from this horse in handicaps. The whisper this morning is that Amy Ryan is still sweet on her mount and has confidence that she will reach the frame with this outsider for her father at a big price.

Crockford's other gambles around the courses:

Hexham - Three White Socks (2.25), Ormus (3.35) and Well Green (4.35)
Bath - Pindar (2.10) and Rebel Magic (2.40)
Sandown - Pearl Secret (3.25) and Checkpoint (5.00)
York - Crackentorp (2.05), Barren Brook (2.35), Pea Shooter (3.10 e/w) and Jo'Burg (4.15 e/w)
Lingfield - Puteri Nur Laila (6.35) and Don Libre (9.05)

Irish Double in Paris?

The Irish raiders in France this afternoon should carry off the two big prizes (1.30 and 3.10). Hisaabaat for Weld in the 1.30 is a cut above the rest in form  and Mullins has an excellent hand in the French Champion Hurdle in Thousand Stars, Zaidpour and Mourad. 9/4 looks value for Thousand Stars and so does the 11/2 available about Zaidpour and the double figures available for the classy Mourad. 

Royal Ascot preparations at HQ

After a week where the weather was more like that of late November the ground will scare off many punters and dent their confidence. A number of horses will be getting in their last race before the Royal meeting, one of which catches Crockford's eye - Ice Pearl (2.55 Newmarket). After a recent good win the sprinter was marked up for favouritism for the Wokingham. His quick return to the racecourse and the need to make the cut for the Royal Ascot prize makes him an interesting proposition this afternoon.

Crockford's Dead Cert - Ice Pearl (2.55 Newmarket)
A good show here will guarantee a shot at the Royal meeting. After an impressive last race Crockford believes this to be a certainty as a follow up.

Crockford's Whisper - Prime Exhibit (3.45 Doncaster)
Prime Exhibit will not mind the ground today and is due to run well for Nicholls at what will be an attractive each way price.

Crockford's other gambles around the courses:

Worcester  - Olympian (2.10), Sangfroid (2.45), Listen and learn (3.50) and Earth Tremor (6.05)
Newmarket  - Campanology (2.20 e/w), Pearl Ice (2.55), Trade Commissioner (3.30), Mulaqen (4.00) and Arab League (5.40)
Chester - Kyllachy Star (2.35), Rigoletto (4.15) and Sonko (4.50)
Doncaster  - Prime Exhibit (3.45 e/w), Starboard (4.20) and Snow Hill (4.55)
Hexham  - Kosta Brava (3.35), Bob Will (4.40) and William Money (5.15) 

Monarch to rule in France for O'Brien

After the imperious victory of Camelot at Epsom yesterday O'Brien should continue his classic sweep with Imperial Monarch today. Quoted at 11/2 with the magic sign he will have strong opposition from the fine French Fifteen and potentially from Meehan's Most Improved if he doesn't need the run. Crockford believes all three present good value.

Camelot to become legendary and the Queen to celebrate

With HRH the Queen starting the Diamond Jubilee weekend celebrations at the Epsom Downs she may have something more to cheer before the off of the big race. Set to Music for Bell and Hughes stands an excellent chance of providing a royal winner in 3.10 at Haydock. A hour later we are certain to see Her Majesty celebrating another classic win for the O'Briens with Camelot.

Crockford's Dead Cert - Camelot (The Derby, Epsom)
Camelot will become legendary this afternoon in a race win that will be remembered for years. However, there will be better value on offer with Mickdaam each way.

Crockford's Whisper - Bear Behind (3.15 Epsom)
Dascombe has been targetting this race with the pacey 3yo. He has an excellent draw but may be beaten to first place by a more experienced horse perhaps a previous course winner. He presents good each way value though.

Crockford's gambles around the courses:

Epsom - Oxford Charley (1.35 e/w), Euxton Hall (2.05), Masked Marvel (2.40 e/w), Bear Behind (3.15 e/w), Camelot and Mickdaam (The Derby).

Beverley - Ingleby Star (4.30 e/w)

Haydock - Pistol (1.40), Montaff (2.10 e/w), Red Jazz (2.35) and Set to Music (3.10)

Musselburgh - Spirit of the law (2.25), Lost in Paris (2.55 e/w) and Commitment (3.30)

Crockford considers the Derby

Will Camelot be the first odds on favourite since Shergar to win the Derby? There are not many who would say that O'Brien will not add this classic to the his win today. But at 4/6 punters will be looking for greater value amongst the place hunters. This evening Crockford considers the field for you -

Camelot - The way that this colt swooped majestically past the field to win the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster last season and battled up the Rowley Mile to win the Guineas you can not question why he is odds on.

Bonfire - Impressive in the Dante at York and with two good runs last season the Highclere team should be confident of making the first three. His line of form through French Fifteen shows that Camelot will have his beating.

Astrology - Could the O'Brien second string upset their favourite again tomorrow as Was did today? The form would suggest not. Who did Astrology beat at Chester last time out? Probably no one who would ever figure in a classic.

Main Sequence - Unbeaten but two of those four wins were in handicap company. The last win was at Lingfield in the Derby Trial. The form is not good enough to trouble others in the field and a lot of improvement would be needed to make the frame.

Thought Worthy - If you are thinking of finding a possible each way punt than this horse certainly lives up to his name. The Fairway Stakes at Newmarket was a close contest with Rugged Cross running well too. Neither he or Rugged Cross will trouble Camelot.

Cavaleiro - Hayley Turner is bound to get the best out of him but form lines suggest he has no chance of troubling the judges.

Mickdaam - Hills and the Magic Sign mark this one up at 33/1 for tomorrow's race. Crockford believes that his credentials stand off the page as an each way contender. After a successful winter/spring campaign in Meydan, he has notched up two excellent runs at Newmarket and Chester. The last being the Chester Vase (Group 3) where he won beating the useful Model Pupil. He appears to handle any ground/surface and has proven form over the trip. The 33/1 will look big tomorrow.

Minimise Risk - The form with others suggests his rank outsider status is correct.

Crockford's prediction

1 CAMELOT
2 Mickdaam
3 Bonfire