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thedeadcert: September 2012

Tuesday 4 September 2012

St Leger is Thought Worthy for John Gosden

John Gosden
St Leger Thought Worthy for John Gosden

The St Leger this year has become a Thought Worthy matter for John Gosden on who should take on the unbeaten Triple Crown bound Camelot


For the last couple of months the St Leger betting has been dominated by a string of John Gosden challengers to Camelot with four of the top seven in the betting being trained by him. 

Today, John Gosden has revealed to the Racing Post that his challenge is likely to take the form of Thought Worthy and Michelangelo with Dartford making the pace.  Crockford believes that this news was probably greeted with some relief by Ballydoyle as the greater threat was likely to have come from the progressively dangerous Gosden filly Great Heavens who now looks Prix Vermeille bound instead. The other Gosden fancy Shantaram was denied his warm up run at York in the Great Voltigeur by illness and would appear not to be ready for the Doncaster Classic. 

This news makes the Triple Crown even more certain for Camelot (quoted at 1/3) with the value in the race appearing now to be each way with the unlucky Main Sequence who in many eyes should have beaten Thought Worthy in the Great Voltigeur. Runner up in the Derby (Thought Worthy only fourth) Main Sequence should come second again to Camelot at the attractive odds of 14/1 with Bet365. Crockford's only doubt would be if his stamina doesn't hold and if the ground is too soft on the day. John Gosden's entry for Thought Worthy in the two mile race on Champions day is a strong indication of his faith in his horse's stamina and is worth noting. Crockford does not rate the chances of his other probable runner Michelangelo who was soundly beaten in the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood

The only other threat to the places may come from Guarantee the Melrose winner (who is not guaranteed of a run) and from Imperial Monarch but it is highly unlikely that O'Brien would let him take his chance. Punters need only think back to the Curragh and his removal from the Irish Derby to see that.

The St Leger looks the most straightforward for years given the muddling form all the others in the field - Camelot will get his Triple Crown


(Photograph - John Gosden at Glorious Goodwood 2012 by Stuart Rice)


Monday 3 September 2012

Frankel, Camelot and Mars to be unbeaten champions this Autumn

This Autumn all the talk will be of the great unbeaten champions Frankel and Camelot - but do not overlook Mars Crockford warns


Mars could be seen again on the racecourse as soon as Saturday in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Trial at Leopardstown. So impressive on his debut at Dundalk he proved all of the talk from Ballydoyle to be true. Crockford believes there is a chance that he may even be better than his unbeaten stablemate the classic winning Camelot. 

Quoted as favourite for the 2013 Derby and second favourite for the 2000 Guineas, he holds entries in all of the key two year old autumn tests - The National Stakes, Royal Lodge, Beresford, Dewhurst and the Racing Post Trophy. 

One thing can be guaranteed which ever he runs in his price will tumble from 16/1 for the Guineas and 10/1 for the Derby by the end of the season.

(Video - Mars' racecourse debut at Dundalk 16 July 2012 - ATR Youtube)

Saturday 1 September 2012

Turkish Delight for Dettori and Hughes to master his rivals at Sandown

Heavy Metal and Master of War at Glorious Goodwood
Master of War beaten to line at Goodwood by Heavy Metal

Richard Hughes has excellent chances to master his rivals at Sandown, whilst Frankie is off in search of Turkish delight


Crockford believes that any punter who follows the master Richard Hughes at Sandown could have a very profitable afternoon. Hughes will re-partner Glorious Goodwood second Master of War in the Solario Stakes this afternoon for his father in law (Richard Hannon). After riding him at Goodwood Hughes commented that further would suit this classy colt. This afternoon even though he has stiff opposition the trip will be in his favour. With bookings on Dank, Hip Hip Hooray, Law Enforcement, Kyleakin Lass, Juvenal and Miblish Hughes most feel confident of getting closer to the elusive champion jockey title. 

Good races in Germany, Ireland and Turkey have also caught Crockford's eye. Frankie Dettori will be in search of Turkish delight with his big race rides on Hunter's Light and Beatrice Aurore at Veliefendi, whilst Roger Varian stands an excellent chance of picking up the big fillies and mares race at Baden Baden with his ultra consistent Shimmering Surf.

Crockford's Dead Cert - Shimmering Surf (4.25 Baden Baden)
At the beginning of the season Crockford was warned of the ability of this horse and that she was set for a good season. It has been a good one as predicted with her winning and finishing second behind excellent horses such as Great Heavens. Her last outing in Deauville showed her continuing form and today's German raid looks a certainty.

Crockford's Whisper - Miblish (4.00 Sandown e/w)
Richard Hughes is excited about the prospect of riding for Clive Brittain this afternoon and believes that his mount has form to match any of his rivals. Such a whisper from a master of the turf has to be heeded especially when the horse in question is 22/1.

Archer selects Drive Time
Archer's Selection - Drive Time (3.50 Killarney)
The shrewd Archer would listen to advice especially when it came from the trainer. Mr Mullins told Crockford himself at Glorious Goodwood that Drive Time would win the Galway Hurdle and that he was one of the best he had. Having been brought down in the Hurdle whilst travelling well this flat race would certainly be now in the scope of the unbeaten Mullins favourite.

Crockford's other gambles around the courses today:

Chester - White Coppice (1.55), Area Fifty One (2.30), Galician (3.05 e/w), Sohraab (4.20 e/w), New Youmzain (4.55 e/w) and Economic Crisis (5.30)
Beverley - Chapter Seven (3.15) and Borderlescott (4.15 e/w)
Bath - Captain Oats (4.35), Prime Exhibit (5.10) and Night Carnation (6.10)
Sandown - Master of War (2.50), Dank (3.25), Miblish (4.00 e/w), Law Enforcement (4.30), Juvenal (5.05) and Hip Hip Hooray (5.35)
Kilarney - Tandem (2.10), Count of Limonade (3.20), Drive Time (3.50) and Rattan (5.10)
Baden-Baden - Shimmering Surf (4.25)
Veliefendi -  Hunter's Light & Prince Alzain  e/w (5.30) and Beatrice Aurore  & Survey (7.00)


(Photograph - Heavy Metal beating Master of War at Glorious Goodwood 2012 by Stuart Rice)